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In recent weeks, President Biden has begun to embrace the term “Bidenomism” as he begins to try to sell an economic record that has so far proven to be a clear political negative for him.
There are signs that the sales pitch is getting easier, though we have yet to see firm evidence that it has aligned with Biden’s political fortunes.
This week brought what may be the two best economic news stories for Biden since his first year in office. It was reported on Wednesday that inflation had fallen to its lowest level since March 2021, Biden’s second full month in office. Then on Friday came the much-watched University of Michigan consumer sentiment index, which showed consumer confidence higher than anytime from September 2021. (These two things they often correlate.)
The second was much higher than expected, posting the biggest single-month increase (13%) since 2005. The first means wages have risen faster than inflation for four consecutive months.
This data comes with the appropriate caveats, including that it is a snapshot in time. Inflation is not falling at a very consistent level month after month, for example, making the Federal Reserve cautious that its interest rate decisions have paid off. And we continue to live in unusual economic times, where the rules have often not been enforced.
But the data leads to the obvious question of whether this could reshape Biden’s views, given the preeminence of the economy on voters’ minds. If inflation, in particular, continues to ease, that could erase perhaps Biden’s biggest electoral liability in a 2024 race in which he was already polling competitively with former President Donald Trump.
The short answer is that we don’t have a lot of great data on Biden and the economy this month. But the most recent measures suggest that views on his economic management have recovered somewhat, and the news we’re seeing should be particularly encouraging for him.
A Fox News poll since the end of June showed Biden’s approval of the economy 22 points under water, that is, with negative opinions (60%) that exceed positive ones (38%). It’s not strong territory, but the division was Biden’s best since early 2022.
The most recent poll we have on Biden and the economy comes from the Economist and YouGov. Earlier this week, it showed Biden 10 points lower on “jobs and the economy,” with 41 percent approving and 51 percent disapproving. Remarkably, these numbers were tied for the best of the eight problems tested.
A Reuters/Ipsos survey Last week on what matters most to Americans, he understands why the second poll looks better for Biden than the first. That’s because the second poll invoked “jobs,” which remains a strong point for Biden’s economy, with one of the lowest unemployment rates in decades. The poll showed Biden just six points underwater on “employment and jobs,” but 25 points underwater on “economy.”
The Ipsos poll also reinforced how falling inflation and rising consumer sentiment could make a big difference for Biden. Biden was another 34 points below water on “inflation and rising prices.” It was also 32 points underwater on inflation in the YouGov poll.
In other words: the reason for Biden’s negative views of the economy is clear, and it is inflation. (The YouGov poll also shows that 57 percent of Americans say their best economic indicator is the prices of the goods and services they consume, much more than the unemployment rate or the stock market.)
As inflation is no longer seen as negative and consumers are more confident, it’s very likely that views of Biden and the economy could improve quickly as people judge him more by his work history.
Which is a big yes. It’s also possible that inflation will ease, but not enough to make people really feel good about the economy, after months and months of rising prices.
There is no doubt that this is suddenly emerging as a major subplot as the 2024 campaign gets under way. Democrats have historically done well in the 2022 midterms, even with inflation clearly in their favor. That was largely thanks to voters apparently being unsure of the alternative, a Republican Party led by Trump, which will apparently be the alternative again in 2024.
If that responsibility for inflation is mitigated to any significant degree, Democrats will suddenly feel a lot better about their chances. And this is especially important when there are many in your party they have worried in silence Biden’s ability to move the ball forward.
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