AAs it stands, political scientists expect Donald Trump to win the Republican nomination for president. Most of the Republican candidates are in step with Trumpist policies and culture wars, unable to differentiate themselves in an already dispersed field; despite the appearance of a united front, factions in the party cannot agree on when and how to pass hardline legislation. Traditional conservative forces are looking for a less volatile alternative with a more viable path to winning the general election, and as that concern grows, some experts say Biden could narrowly win re-election if the race is a 2020 rematch.
“Trump is the mainstream,” said Allan Lichtman, distinguished professor of history at American University, noting that “so-called mainstream Republicans” like Liz Cheney are now out of office.
Lichtman, who wrote The Keys to the White House, which breaks down a prediction system to determine the outcome of the presidential election, said there was no polarization within the Republican party and denied that Trump is not a true conservative. Trump’s policies are “the absolute culmination of 100 years of Republican tradition,” he said. Lichtman compared Trump’s demonization of Muslims to the Republican Party’s demonization of Catholics and Jews in the 1920s. Trump’s base wants him to be a bully, he said: They don’t care about his infidelities or his accusations of sexual assault.
“The Republican contenders haven’t challenged any of Trump’s policies. They might be talking about his election, his character, but they haven’t challenged what he stands for,” Lichtman said.
Cornell political scientist David Bateman compared Trump’s closest challenger, Ron DeSantis, to former Wisconsin Gov. Scott Walker, who ran unsuccessfully for the Republican nomination in 2016. What worked in the respective states of governors does not necessarily work. a national stage, Bateman said, and it’s not clear that culture war politics successful in Florida can win nationally.
“It’s too specific. It’s too context-dependent,” Bateman said, adding that Chris Christie doesn’t appear to be running for president, but instead is running against Trump and made procedural criticisms: “He has a better chance of winning a Democratic nomination.”
Other candidates, such as Tim Scott and Nikki Haley, don’t think they can win this round, but know their candidacy will build a national profile and position them for the 2028 race, Bateman said. Bateman also suggested they may be seeking a vice presidential nomination.
If Trump is convicted of a crime after winning the nomination, or if he is convicted and still wins the nomination, it’s possible the Republican National Committee could impeach Trump, Lichtman said. In that case, any of his other rivals could get the nomination.
“On average, scandal doesn’t help. Legal problems don’t help,” said Jacob Nieheisel of the University at Buffalo.
For a certain element of the electorate, legal problems will help Trump. Nieheisel added that “they will double.” For mainstream Republicans, Trump’s legal troubles will be a deal breaker, Nieheisel said.
It is clear that some of the Republican party’s institutional allies are already reconsidering their support, with Rupert Murdoch walks away of Trump and DeSantis, Bateman said. It could be a good sign for moderate or “country club” Republicans that Koch-related entities are looking to fund other candidates instead of Trump-style Republicans, but Nieheisel said it’s unlikely to be a saving grace. if they can’t convince the people they like. Trump to look elsewhere.
Also, Nieheisel said, how will moderate Republicans in Congress handle this particular conundrum: If this is going to be Trump’s party, how can they harness that energy and fundraising?
Despite the ideological differences between the Republicans, it is in the party’s interest to “show a united front”.
“They don’t want to air their dirty laundry,” Neiheisel said.
Bateman said that “the polarization we’re seeing with the Republican party is polarization within an already radicalized party” and that the polarization in the primaries “is very similar to what you’re seeing in Congress.” The divisions within the party are over tactics, he said. While there is broad support within the party for the policy, Republicans are at odds over how they can pass legislation given they lack the votes in the Senate.
“Whichever faction is more extreme [of the party] it’s making demands on a policy that wouldn’t happen on their own,” Bateman said.
Far-right conservatives included policies on military support for Ukraine, abortion, gender and race in an annual defense bill, the New York Times reported. They want things that can’t happen, Bateman said, raising the level of oblivion.
According to Bateman, Republicans aren’t looking for someone different from Trump, but someone less mercurial. This reflects a calculation among party leaders and some donors that “Trump is a loser.” Bateman noted that Trump lost the popular vote to Hillary Clinton and the election to Biden. He said that if it hadn’t been for Trump, the Republican party could have won in 2020.
Since 1984, Lichtman has predicted nine out of 10 presidential elections using 13 keys: party mandate, contest, incumbency, third party, short-term economy, long-term economy, policy change, social unrest, scandal, foreign failure/ military, foreign /military success, titular charisma and challenging charisma.
But he said there are still too many keys in the air for him to predict the outcome in 2024. If he runs for re-election, Biden would have two keys: the incumbency and the lack of a serious challenger. But he would need four more to win re-election. The “critical keys in place,” Lichtman said, are the short- and long-term outlook for the economy and foreign or military successes or failures.
Niehiesel said voters would see stability versus a wild card. People aren’t interested in the soap opera aspects of Trump’s candidacy, he added, meaning many Republicans will stay home or cross the aisle.
“Unless something else happens,” he said, “I think it’s really Biden’s to lose if this ends up being the game.”
