The 2023 fantasy football season turned upside down Sunday afternoon as one of the big dominoes of the offseason finally fell after weeks of speculation. DeAndre Hopkinsafter being released from the Arizona Cardinals on May 26, has found a new home, as it has been reported that he will sign with the Tennessee Titans, by Doug Kyed, with contract figures submitted by Ian Rapoport. This signing has a considerable impact on fantasy football, changing Average Fantasy Draft Position (ADP) and potentially jarring fantasy football rankings as we are heading to training camp very soon. This breaking news will also affect the NFL betting markets and how we perceive the Titans to operate offensively, so let’s dive in here.
DeAndre Hopkins Fantasy Football ADP and Fantasy Impact
Right now in Underdog Fantasy, Hopkins is being drafted between the late fourth and early fifth rounds in the mix with some high-level options that have questions about the offense they’re in, such as Drake London, Christian Watson, Terry McLaurini DJ Moore. Hopkins stands out here as an option who, like McLaurin, has earned targets at a high level.
Last season after a six-game PED suspension, Hopkins earned more than 10 targets per game and still had a solid aerial yardage and target share per game (29.4% from Weeks 7-16 ). Not more Justin Jefferson, Front Adams i Tyreek’s Hill earned a higher percentage of his team’s targets in Week 7-16 than Hopkins. While the Cardinals didn’t score many points last season, their peripheral stats were still very much what we’d expect from a player like Hopkins, even if he enters his age-31 season in 2023.
So now with the move to Tennessee, where should we draft him in fantasy football? I’d say Hopkins is probably in the right spot in drafts right now. Arizona’s raw passing rate (65 percent) was sixth-best in the NFL last season, almost out of necessity because the Cardinals won just four games and passed on quarterbacks after that. Kyler Murray step down. Had Hopkins stayed in Arizona, he would have benefited as an obvious alpha target who would have to rely on pure volume to pay his current WR25 ADP.
With Tennessee, the play veers more into the run Derrick Henry as they had the third-lowest pass percentage over expectation (PROE) last season, but we’ve been drafting Treylon Burks (WR35, semi-final sixth round) i Chigoziem Okonkwo (TE12, mid-11th round) aggressively with the idea that they would benefit as primary upside options in a passing game that would have plenty of targets available.
Throw in Hopkins, and I’m predicting Burks to slide a lap toward the bottom of the main wide receiver tier with Rashod Bateman i Courtland Sutton. This could represent a good buying opportunity if you like Burks’ athletic profile and versatility to move around the lineup. This is the best case scenario. As for Okonkwo, he probably doesn’t move more than a spot or two in the tight end rankings, but his advantage in target gains could be limited in an offense that can only throw the ball a little more than 500 times last season
Let’s not forget Ryan Tannehill, the Titans quarterback who has essentially been left for dead in the early season and best ball rankings. I’m fine drafting him now as a low-end QB2 or high-end QB3 in best ball, but he’s still an undrafted quarterback in redraft formats. Not much has changed here, even with the addition of Hopkins, as Tannehill won’t suddenly become a quarterback throwing for 30 touchdowns this season because Hopkins is now in town.
There are also the teams Hopkins did NOT go to where you can see some ADP movement, like players from the Bills, Chiefs and Patriots, all teams Hopkins was rumored to go to before landing with the Titans. There is certainly some influence on the best ball. ADP focused on some of the options that would have been next to Hopkins, such as Stefon Diggs, Gabe Davis, Kadarius Toneyeven Rhammond Stevenson. Those teams’ players and other ancillary targets will likely see a slight increase in ADP after this deal, as the drafters will have renewed confidence now that the Hopkins domino has fallen.
At FanDuel Sportsbook, the Super Bowl odds for the Tennessee Titans went from +7500 yesterday to +6000, but the win total remains where it was before the signing at 7.5.
At DraftKings, the Titans Super Bowl odds have yet to budge from +8000 to win the Super Bowl. His win total has also remained static at the time of writing at 7.5 wins. Oddsmakers and betting markets still don’t seem too convinced that the Titans are a legitimate contender in the AFC South and the AFC as a whole.
In accordance with Sharp soccer analysis, the Titans have one of the toughest schedules in the NFL. The Titans also have a “rest advantage” in the top five, which is +11 rest days over their scheduled opponents, which accounts for the days after the Thursday and Monday night games, off the bye week , the odd special and holiday scheduled games (Saturday games). , overseas games, etc.)
Instead, the worst team in the NFL for the break is the San Francisco 49erswho have 20 LESS days off compared to their opponents.
All things considered, besides some general variance and the Titans looking like a much better team than the sum of their parts over the years, I’d be willing to take the 7.5+ win bet thinking they would of being second best. AFC South team in most scenarios.
With the Jacksonville Jaguars currently holds the mantle as the perceived best team in the AFC South after its late-season surge and a young, up-and-coming offense led by Trevor Lawrenceplus the Indianapolis Colts i Houston Texans potentially finding their quarterback of the future, the Titans stand out as the “veteran” team. They are still in a competitive window with Derrick Henryto veteran Ryan Tannehill and now adding Hopkins? This offense has the potential to surprise this season, so I don’t mind placing some informed bets on the Titans to eclipse the 7.5 win line. I just don’t think the ceiling is more than 9-10 wins should things break right for them. Although Britt Flinn seems to be on the Titans side after this trade:
As for Hopkins’ on-field impact, he stands as the leading outside receiver at Tennessee’s most important position of need. After Treylon Burksthe Titans were (and still are) woefully thin among their pass-catching ranks, with Nick Westbrook-Ikhine, Kyle Phillipsi Chris Moore expected as the next receivers. Hopkins gives Ryan Tannehill and possibly second round pick Will Levis a legitimate top wide receiver who can win targets. That will be important for the passing game, but will the Titans compromise anything else with the passing game from a volume standpoint?
conclusion
DeAndre Hopkins going from a fast-paced, volume-driven offense in Arizona to a low-volume, efficiency-based passing game seems like a wash when determining how to change his fantasy football value in drafts. That’s why I don’t see the fantasy community reacting so wildly to any trade from ADP to Hopkins because of the extremes from one offense to another, plus his “advanced” age and the production cliff that it’s typical of old alpha receivers when they start. lose some of the explosiveness of his athletic profile.
From a real-life point of view, this tweet seems very important:
The AJ Brown trade pretty much cost former Titans GM Jon Robinson his job, so we’ll see how this Hopkins move turns out for new GM Ran Carthon.
While Hopkins still has plenty of talent, this signing doesn’t mean Tennessee has a radical change in philosophy toward a more significant move. It’s more of an efficiency game where Hopkins can absorb targets, and yes Ryan Tannehill he has a little gas left in the tank, he can raise the offensive a little more. Does this signing make the Titans a better team? I’d say marginally, since there’s no question the Titans as a whole are better for this move right now, but it’s not a needle mover for Hopkins’ individual fantasy football prospects in 2023.
