RIO DE JANEIRO (AP) — Former Brazilian President Jair Bolsonaro is fading from the spotlight, showing the power of the courts over the electoral system and the political shortcomings of the increasingly impotent former leader.
Brazil’s highest electoral court decided last month Bolsonaro cannot run for any political office until 2030 to abuse his power and casting unfounded doubts in the country’s electronic voting system.
Bolsonaro was once dubbed the “Trump of the tropics” after emerging as a crusading outsider promising to shake up the system and pursue an aggressive brand of identity politics, including conservative values. Trump, who also called into question the US electoral system and faces legal problemsremains the favorite for the Republican Party nomination.
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A clear demonstration of Bolsonaro’s waning power was the vote on tax reform in the lower house of Congress this month.
A government-backed proposal by President Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva to overhaul Brazil’s notoriously complicated tax system was also supported by lawmakers and the general public. Bolsonaro tried to rally the opposition, his first attempt to do so, but the reform approved by a margin of more than 3 to 1. Almost two dozen members of Bolsonaro’s party challenged his will.
Bolsonaro has “little or no leverage as a potential opposition leader,” political analyst Leandro Loyola wrote after the vote.
A political caricature in Brazil this month showed a scientist looking under a microscope at an angry Bolsonaro and clenching his fists.
“Fascinating,” read the headline. “It continues to decline.”
Construction executive Alexandre Cohim donated to Bolsonaro’s re-election campaign but said on Friday that the court disqualifying the former president was a “blessing”.
“It will allow other people on the right to emerge who are more capable,” Cohim, 60, said by phone from Salvador.
after him lost the race by the narrowest margin since Brazil’s return to democracy more than three decades ago, the presumption among many in his party was that Bolsonaro would lead a fierce opposition against Lula.
But just before Lula’s inauguration on January 1, Bolsonaro he left for Florida for an extended stay. he returned in March and now he may even lose the monthly salary he receives from his party, according to local media, which is around $8,500. His allies have already appealed to supporters to help the former president pay his bills, while a newly founded Bolsonaro store offers everything from Bolsonaro-themed wall calendars to party decorations.
The threat of jail also looms large multiple criminal investigations into the former president’s actionsand the question of who might lead a viable challenge to Lula’s Workers’ Party in 2026 is openly debated.
“Bolsonaro seems to be on his way to an inevitable end to his career,” political columnist Merval Pereira wrote in O Globo newspaper this month.
São Paulo state governor Tarcísio de Freitas, Bolsonaro’s former infrastructure minister and a close ally who backed his re-election bid, is among the politicians being touted as potential right-wing standard-bearers.
Some scoff at the conclusion that Bolsonaro has no chance of returning to the country’s highest office less than a year after receiving 58 million votes to Lula’s 60 million. But Geraldo Tadeu, a political scientist at the State University of Rio de Janeiro, said Bolsonaro’s rise to power in 2018 could be explained mainly by a confluence of one-off factors.
Brazil had just suffered the worst recession in almost a century, and the Car wash corruption probe it involved dozens of politicians, making room for an outsider. Lula, who had been leading the polls, was kicked out of the race due to corruption and money laundering convictions and jailed. His convictions were subsequently annulled.
“Circumstances left a void that Bolsonaro filled,” Tadeu said.
Bolsonaro’s lack of “leadership and negotiation skills” and his inability to maintain political support undermine his chances of a comeback, Tadeu said.
Since returning to Brazil from the US, Bolsonaro has been ordered to provide witness to the Federal Police on several occasions, and criminal convictions could extend the bar from prosecution and subject him to prison. Bolsonaro denies any wrongdoing.
Bolsonaro’s deputy, son Eduardo, ran in February an online store selling Bolsonaro merchandise. Boosters can pick up notebooks with the president’s smiling face, keychains and mugs with his silhouette, or wall calendars marking the milestones of his administration. Eduardo Bolsonaro celebrated his own birthday on July 10 with a party with the store’s Bolsonaro themed decoration. On her cake, in cursive, it read, “Our dream lives on more than ever!”
“The store is a form of propaganda, a way to keep Bolsonaro alive as a symbol,” said Caio Marcondes, a political scientist at the University of São Paulo. “It’s a brand, a product that represents the right in Brazil.”
The store is also a way to raise funds as his legal fees mount. A prosecutor has asked for Bolsonaro’s party to be ordered to freeze his salary, and Bolsonaro was facing heavy fines for failing to comply with COVID-19 rules in Sao Paulo state. The latter prompted allies last month to ask their supporters for electronic money transfers directly to Bolsonaro’s bank account.
“It has increased enough to pay the current fines,” Bolsonaro said in a video broadcast by conservative news channel Jovem Pan in late June. The former leader did not disclose how much.
Launching appeals for donations is also a way to keep Bolsonaro’s base mobilized, Marcondes said.
“The idea is to create opportunities for people to engage so that they feel part of a movement that is not dead,” he said.
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AP reporter Carla Bridi contributed from Brasilia.
