Every nation has taken to the pitch at the World Cup. More than a few pundits questioned how competitive the tournament would be with the expanded field. They are now quiet after good performances from Jamaica against France, Haiti in their match against England and even Vietnam to a lesser extent against the United States.
Are there further lessons to be learned before heading back into the window ahead of the second round of group stage matches? Jay Croucher (@croucherJD) and Drew Dinsick (@whale_capper) shared some details about a recent edition of Bet the EDGE.
Dinsick noted that the UNDER has been the play Down Under.
“The main betting news around the Women’s World Cup is that the UNDERS are overwhelming. I think if you were blindly backing the UNDER to this point in the tournament, you’d probably be ahead by 10 units, which is crazy.”
Croucher, a native of Australia, wasn’t all that surprised by the low scores.
“As someone who flew 24 hours around the world to Australia, after that flight I didn’t feel ready to score six goals past the Vietnamese either, but they (Team USA) are acclimated and maybe they’ll grow more into the tournament as it goes on.”
The market has adjusted to the start of this tournament with few results. However, if the low totals continue into Round 2 of the group stage, Dinsick believes there will be a play before the third round of games.
“If the second round of the Round Robin stage is more UNDERS, my gut is that you could probably blind-bet the OVERS in the Third Round Robins and probably have a decent angle as the market is overcorrecting for that … in the event that there’s still a bit of a lack of chemistry and goals (in the second round of group play), and UNDERS will continue to go the other way.”
As for Team USA’s second game of the tournament against the Netherlands on Wednesday at 9 P ET, the folks at Bet the EDGE like the red, white and blue.
“I don’t think the Netherlands are the same team that made it to the World Cup final in 2019 or even close,” Dinsick said. “They have a decent defense and a decent goalkeeper. But they will definitely be vulnerable to USA midfield counter attack… I have USA getting to zero. I don’t mind putting 1½ goals for the current price. I don’t mind putting -140 for them in the three.
Here are the updated odds for a handful of favorites to win the tournament:
USA +240
Spain +320
England +600
Germany +700
Australia +1100
France +1400
Brazil +1800
The main market movers have been Australia (opened on 1/15), Spain (opened on 1/5) and Brazil (opened on 1/25).
Enjoy the games and enjoy the sweat.
