In his latest media briefing as Director General of Health, Dr Ashley Bloomfield said that Covid-19 case rates were trending downward in all regions of New Zealand and that the “worst-case scenario” was now unlikely ” previously modeled is fulfilled.
Bloomfield gave the update on the state of the Covid-19 outbreak in the country at a press conference on Wednesday afternoon.
The drop in Covid-19 cases was also seen in sewage results and test positivity rates for people admitted to hospital in the week to 24 July.
SUNGMI KIM/Things
Dr Ashley Bloomfield is stepping down as Director General of Health on Friday.
He said the case rate of reported test results had decreased by about 12% compared to the previous week.
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“Pleasantly,” the case rate was declining among the over-65s, who have had the highest case rates in this outbreak.
Similarly, the hospitalization rate had also dipped at the end of last week, but picked up a bit, rising again over the weekend.
On Wednesday, there were 8730 new community cases and 808 people hospitalized with the virus.
Initially, Covid-19 Modeling Aotearoa’s modeling of the possible size of the BA.5 wave had the “worst case scenario” with a peak of 20,000 cases per day and 1,200 occupied hospital beds.
That now looked “highly unlikely”, which Bloomfield said he was sure “we are all relieved to see”.
While there was still the possibility that hospital occupancy could reach more than 1,000 beds, Aotearoa was approaching a peak of 850 hospitalizations.
Bloomfield said hospitalizations tended to trail a week behind cases, which had been declining.
Part of this was likely related to international evidence suggesting that previous Covid-19 infections, specifically with the Omicron variant, provided stronger than expected protection against BA.5.
The modeling also took into account updated data on uptake of the second booster and expected future uptake.
Bloomfield said BA.5 remained the dominant variant in the community. From July 18, just over 60% of cases were BA.5.
Ricky Wilson/Things
Community Covid-19 case rates are trending downward in all regions of Aotearoa, Health Director General Dr Ashley Bloomfield said on Wednesday. (File photo)
Officials expected the prevalence of BA.5 to increase and that New Zealand would see “almost complete takeover” by early August.
Bloomfield also highlighted some preliminary analysis of deaths attributed to Covid-19, showing “compellingly” how getting fit was “one of the most important things you can do to reduce your risk of death”.
People who had not received two doses of the Covid-19 vaccine were six times more likely to die if they got Covid-19 than someone who had received at least one booster dose, when adjusted for all other factors.
For people under 60, that risk was even greater, more than 13 times greater for those who were unvaccinated or had less than two doses, compared to someone who received a booster.
Many of those who had died under the age of 60 had underlying health problems and the boost was “particularly vital” for those people, he said.
Officials loved half of everything Deaths attributed to Covid of people between 20 and 60 could have been avoided if all these people had been empowered.
Bloomfield was joined by Public Health Agency Deputy Director Andrew Old and Te Whatu Ora Health New Zealand National Medical Director Dr Pete Watson at Ministry of Health headquarters in Wellington.
Watson said that while there had been some “encouraging signs” in the Covid-19 numbers in recent days, the country was “not out of the woods yet”.
Hospitals and primary care clinics (such as GPs) were still seeing “significant pressure” from the impact of Covid-19 and other winter illnesses, such as flu, he said.
That impact was not just due to increased demand from people seeking health care, but also “much higher than normal” staff absences, Watson said.
The press conference is the last scheduled for Bloomfield as director general of health, a role that ends on Friday.
Both Old and Watson paid tribute to Bloomfield at the press conference, believed to be his 307th stand-up since the start of the Covid-19 pandemic, calling Old a “Herculean effort”.
Bloomfield said he was “fully confident” in those who will continue to lead and deliver the Covid-19 response in his absence.
He said he had no regrets but learned “a great lesson”.
“We tend to underestimate the ability and the capacity and the ingenuity of our communities, and actually providing them with the resources and the information to go ahead and do the right thing can lead to tremendous success,” he said.
