ANALYSIS OF THE AMERICAN DOLLAR AND CONVERSION POINTS
The ISM data is largely in line with expectations. The FOMC announcement will be in focus later today.
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FUNDAMENTAL CONTEXT OF THE DOLLAR
The pace of US ISM Services PMI data (see Economic Calendar) indicates that the services industry remains in expansionary territory, but some metrics missed expectations, including:
The business activity index: -3.4% Employment: -0.5% Inventory sentiment: -9.0%
Services grew mainly due to the increase in new orders and the flexibility of supply chain dynamics. That said, most respondents were upbeat about economic conditions but cited concerns as talk of a recession gathers steam.
The build-up in the PMI print saw ADP employment turn a surprising figure in markets with another robust print. This contrasts with JOLT openings and service employment which indicate that the areas of the labor market are diverging. The weaker employment figure from the ISM report appeared to be the highlight of the release, potentially defusing tough conditions in the US labor market: initial reaction on the chart of the dollar index (DXY) showed a marginal sale
This makes the upcoming FOMC announcement fraught with anticipation, as the Fed has multiple moving parts to contend with amid a banking crisis and the looming decision around the US debt ceiling.
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Overall, a healthy launch for the US economy that leads me to believe the Fed will stay in line with money market prices and 25 bps interest rate hike.
US ECONOMIC CALENDAR
Source: DailyFX Economic Calendar
TECHNICAL ANALYSIS
DAILY CHART OF THE AMERICAN DOLLAR INDEX
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The previous daily DXY chart remains within the developing symmetric triangle pattern that is ripe for a breakout depending on the FOMC announcement later today.
Resistance levels:
103.4250 day MA (yellow) 102.81 Triangular resistance
Support levels:
101.42 Triangle support 101.00100.79
— Written by Warren Venketas for DailyFX.com
Contact and follow Warren on Twitter:@WVenketas
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