A little change in our thinking tonight.
Thunderstorms are developing tonight in southeast Arkansas and northwest Mississippi. These storms are not surface based, but what we call “elevated” storms. This does not mean that they are stronger, but that their bases are “elevated” or higher in the atmosphere.
These elevated storms can produce hail and strong winds, but generally do not produce tornadoes.
The storms have plenty of velocity shear to work with, and the strongest ones will show enough organization to potentially approach severe limits overnight. They can produce strong winds and even some hail. There could be a couple of severe storm warnings that should be taken seriously, like all severe storm warnings. But they will certainly produce lightning and loud thunder
They will reach northwest Alabama between midnight and 2 am
They will arrive in Tuscaloosa and Birmingham between 5 and 6 am
They will arrive at the I-65 Corridor around 9 am
Meanwhile, a mesoscale convective complex appears to be developing over western Arkansas. These storms will push southeast into central Mississippi after 5 AM. They will reach southwest Alabama around 10 a.m., but will affect areas from Butler in Choctaw County southeast to near Evergreen in Conecuh County to the Mobile area.
Alabama’s strongest storm is possible after 4pm across south Alabama into the Florida Panhandle. It remains to be seen if thunderstorms can form closer to the front across central Alabama during the afternoon.
I’m updating the forecast now and Scott will be activated after midnight to track storms. I’ll be back at 5am for the follow up and video.
Category: Alabama Weather, ALL POSTS, Severe Weather
About the author (Author Profile)
Bill Murray is the president of The Weather Factory. He is the site’s official weather historian and weekend forecaster. It also grounds the site’s severe weather coverage. Bill Murray is the proud holder of National Weather Association digital stamp #0001 @wxhistorian
