Istanbul, Turkey – As his country approaches its centenary, Turkish President Recep Tayyip Erdogan has framed the next 100 years as the “Century of Turkey”.
The May 14 election could be portrayed in similar terms, either an extension of Erdogan’s two-decade rule or a government promising to return to a parliamentary system from the current executive presidency.
The presidential and parliamentary elections are considered by many to be the most important since Turkey held its first fair multi-party vote in 1950, also on May 14.
They come amid a cost-of-living crisis that saw inflation peak at 85 percent in October and earthquakes in February that killed more than 50,000 people in the country.
Erdogan, who came to power in 2003, offers a vision of further development, promising to extend the improvements made by his Adalet ve Kalkınma (Justice and Development, AK Party) government.
It is the second national election under the presidential system that concentrated power in Erdogan’s hands.
Erdogan’s challenger
The main opposition rival, Kemal Kilicdaroglu, has pledged greater democratization and overturning Erdogan’s “one-man rule” while tackling what he calls economic mismanagement.
“Perhaps this will be the most critical election in the history of the republic,” said Bulent Kusoglu, vice chairman of Kilicdaroglu’s Cumhuriyet Halk Party (Republican People’s Party, CHP).
“There is also an awakening in society. With this awakening, if we succeed in the elections, society will reach a much better point.”
AK Party MP Ravza Kavakci Kan also stressed the importance of voting. “This election is very important because we are currently at a pace where a lot of very good projects are being brought to the public.”
“For the continuation of these projects and to offer new projects, especially to young people, we work day and night to find solutions to new challenges that may arise. So this is a very important election from that perspective.”
Opposition presidential candidate Kemal Kilicdaroglu at a rally in Bursa, Turkey on May 11, 2023 [Murad Sezer/Reuters]
Erdogan behind in the polls
The latest polls show Kilicdaroglu leading Erdogan in the presidential race, which will be repeated in two weeks if none of the three candidates pass the 50 percent threshold. In the parliamentary elections, however, the AK Party is expected to be the largest party in the Grand National Assembly.
The withdrawal of a fourth presidential candidate, Muharrem Ince of the Homeland Party, is expected to result in more votes for Kilicdaroglu.
Some 192,000 polling stations in 87 constituencies are open between 08:00 and 17:00 (05:00 and 14:00 GMT). Each of Turkey’s 81 provinces counts as a constituency apart from Izmir, Bursa, Istanbul and Ankara, which are divided into two or three voting regions.
Nationwide, 60.7 million people are eligible to vote. Some 1.8 million Turkish citizens living abroad have already voted in 73 countries or at border gates.
The votes will appoint both the president and 600 members of Parliament for five years. Parliamentary deputies are selected by proportional representation from party lists.
Political alliances
The political parties, 24 are running in the elections, have generally formed alliances to run. This allows smaller parties below the 7% national vote threshold to enter parliament.
The AK Party has aligned with the Milliyetçi Hareket Party (Nationalist Movement, MHP) and the far-right Grand Unity Party, as well as the conservative New Welfare Party, to form the Cumhur İttifakı (People’s Alliance).
Kilicdaroglu’s CHP is the largest party in the six-member Millet İttifakı (National Alliance), which includes the nationalist İyi Party (Party of Good), the conservative Saadet Party (Happiness Party), the center-right Demokrat Party (Democratic Party ) and two parties founded by former Erdogan ministers, the Demokrasi ve Atılım Party (Democracy and Progress, Deva Party) and the Gelecek Party (Future Party).
The pro-Kurdish party Halkların Demokratik (People’s Democratic Party, HDP), which is fielding candidates under the banner of the Yeşil Sol Party (Green Left Party, YSP) due to a court case threatening its closure, is the main Labor and Freedom Alliance party with the Türkiye İşçi Party (Turkey Workers’ Party, TIP) and several smaller left-wing groups. He has endorsed the candidacy of Kilicdaroglu.
Two other alliances – the right-wing Ata Alliance and the Socialist Union of Forces – also present candidates.
Supporters of Kemal Kilicdaroglu, presidential candidate of Turkey’s main opposition alliance, applaud during a rally ahead of May 14 presidential and parliamentary elections in Tekirdag, Turkey, on April 27, 2023 [Murad Sezer/Reuters]
The voting process
Voters who go to the polls will have two ballots and select Erdogan, Kilicdaroglu or Sinan Ogan, who represents the Ata Alliance, for the presidency; they choose a political party in a separate vote for parliament.
The two ballots are placed in the same envelope before being deposited in a ballot box. Votes are counted at polling stations at the end of the day and a report is sent to the local office of the Higher Electoral Board (YSK). Presidential votes are counted first, and there should be a clear indication of the leadership result by Sunday afternoon.
The electoral process is closely monitored by volunteers, such as those from the volunteer group Oy ve Otesi (Vote and Beyond), as well as party representatives, and turnout is usually high: 87% was reported in 2018.
Official observers keep a copy of their polling station’s vote report and party workers pass them on, allowing political parties to maintain their own tally of votes at national level. The CHP says it has recruited nearly 564,000 volunteers to monitor the polls.
In the 11 provinces affected by February’s deadly earthquakes, the electoral council has set up polling stations around temporary shelters for survivors. However, it is still unclear how many of the hundreds of thousands of voters who fled the earthquake zone will return to the polls.
The United Nations estimated that about three million left the disaster zone in the weeks after the earthquakes, mostly to other parts of Turkey. The electoral council says only 133,000 voters in the earthquake region have transferred their votes to new addresses.
“There are many unknowns that will only become apparent on election day,” said Berk Esen, an assistant professor of political science at Istanbul’s Sabanci University.
“We don’t have accurate data on how many left the earthquake zone. If they didn’t register in their new residences, they have to physically return to the earthquake zone on election day and that’s not really a realistic possibility.”
Amid concerns that the AK Party could challenge an opposition victory, Erdogan pledged on Thursday to do “as democracy requires”.
“I believe in my nation and those who do not respect the result of the polls have no respect for the nation either,” he said during a television interview. He also suggested changing the current threshold for the presidential race of more than 50 percent.
