So who won the election in Turkey?
Nobody…yet.
After a hotly contested first round of elections on Sunday, Turkey is very likely to head for a runoff on May 28 as President Recep Tayyip Erdogan, who had hoped to win a third term, narrowly missed achieved the required 50 percent. of votes, although it went better than expected.
Wait, what’s a second round?
A runoff is a second round of voting that occurs when no candidate receives more than half of the presidential vote.
As vote counting entered its final stages on Monday, all indicators pointed to Erdogan falling just short of the 50 percent threshold needed to win in the first round.
He and his nearest competitor, Kemal Kilicdarolgu, are likely to prepare to campaign for the next two weeks as Erdogan tries to extend his two-decade rule, with Kilicdaroglu hoping to launch Turkey on a “new path” with the support of his six years party alliance
The final results of Sunday’s vote are expected to be announced at 15:00 (12:00 GMT) on Monday, Al Jazeera’s Farah al-Zaman Shawki said from Ankara, with votes from l ‘foreigner yet to fully count.
Which candidate is leading the vote on Sunday?
With 99 percent of the national ballots counted, Erdogan won 49.92 percent of the vote, with Kilicdaroglu trailing with 44.95 percent of the vote, according to the state-run Anadolu news agency, which gets its numbers of the Supreme Electoral Council of Turkey.
Meanwhile, third-place candidate Sinan Ogan had 5.2 percent, a surprisingly high result for many analysts.
Opinion polls ahead of Sunday’s vote had predicted a slight lead for Kilicdaroglu, meaning Erdogan has done better than expected.
As election night drew to a close, both sides claimed to be ahead in the vote count and fought over the presentation of the ballot numbers.
Do candidates accept a second round?
Erdogan said early Monday that he could still win, adding, however, that he would respect the decision to have a runoff.
Kilicdaroglu also said he would accept a runoff and vowed to win it.
“Despite all his lies and attacks, Erdogan did not get the desired result,” Kilicdaroglu said.
“We will absolutely win the second round… and we will bring democracy,” he added.
Has Turkey ever had a second round?
This would be the first runoff under Turkey’s new electoral system. Turkey switched from a parliamentary to a presidential system in July 2018.
The presidential elections of 1989, 1993, 2000 and 2007 went to a third round, but both the voting systems and the politicians were different from those in Turkey today. The presidents of these elections were chosen by parliamentarians, whose position was purely symbolic without any real power.
Meanwhile, Erdogan claimed an absolute majority in the 2014 election, when the voting system changed to one in which citizens chose their president.
The candidate for third place has been called ‘kingmaker’, what is that?
Ogan has been dubbed a “kingmaker” by analysts because he could play a pivotal role in the outcome of a runoff if he endorses one of the other two candidates facing the runoff vote.
Given how narrow the margins are, Ogan’s 5.25 percent would be a big boon for Erdogan or Kilicdaroglu.
In an interview with German news site Der Spiegel, Ogan said he would support the opposition Nation’s Alliance only if “the HDP is excluded from the political system,” referring to the predominantly pro-Kurdish socialist People’s Democratic Party .
In a tweet on Monday, however, Ogan denied saying anything to Der Spiegel that differed from what he had said to the Turkish press.
No, Der Spiegel, in the interview I gave you, we did not say anything different from the general conditions we told the Turkish press. Where did you come up with that?
— Dr. Sinan Ogan (@DrSinanOgan) May 15, 2023
Translation: No, Der Spiegel, in the interview I gave you, we did not say anything different from the general conditions we told the Turkish press. Where did you come up with that?
According to Dragoman Strategies analyst Onur Erim, the ATA Alliance candidate will “certainly” be a decision-maker, but he would not give his endorsement without receiving something in return.
Ogan will want ministries or vice-presidencies in exchange for an endorsement, Erim told Al Jazeera.
What are the results of the parliamentary elections?
Reporting from Izmir, Al Jazeera’s Omar Hajj says the ruling AK Party won the majority of seats in parliament, although it lost several seats. Despite this, Erdogan’s alliance still managed to secure a majority in the 600-seat parliament.
“The AK Party’s number of seats in parliament has decreased from 296 to 266,” Hajj said.
“The Republican People’s Party [CHP] won 166 seats [with their alliance], but he didn’t get those seats alone. This means they only have 135 seats,” he added.
Anadolu said Erdogan’s ruling alliance was around 49.3%, while Kilicdaroglu’s Nation Alliance was at around 35.2% and support for a pro-Kurdish party was above 10% .
How could the candidates come out in a second round on May 28?
Analysts predict Erdogan is more likely to win in a runoff.
Political analyst Ali Carkoglu said Erdogan has “momentum behind him” after Sunday’s polls.
“Erdogan maintained his support base in the heart of Anatolia, although he lost some support in the southeast… He also maintained a certain level of credible support in the big cities,” Carkoglu told Al Jazeera.
“He was also very successful in the earthquake affected regions. Some people find that surprising, but he apparently lived up to what was expected of him and promises to do even better after the election,” the analyst added.
Carkoglu said what went wrong for the opposition was that they “couldn’t get any support from the heart of Turkey.”
He added that some members of the opposition alliance, especially the nationalists, did not perform as strongly as they had hoped.
Al Jazeera’s Zeina Khodr, meanwhile, said there are some members of the opposition who are disappointed with Kilicdaroglu and see him as the wrong candidate as he failed to remove conservative votes from the party.
“They are also questioning the alliance with the pro-Kurdish HDP which the Turkish government considers a political wing of the PKK,” he said.
