the pulse | security | South Asia
The longer Pakistan’s political crisis drags on, the more vigilant India should be on its border.
People lay flowers on an army tank during a rally to show solidarity with the Pakistani army in Karachi, Pakistan, Friday, May 19, 2023.
Credit: AP Photo/Fareed Khanannouncement
For people who are used to separating India and Pakistan, it’s hard not to see the contrast heavily tilted in India’s favor at this point.
Following the arrest of former Prime Minister Imran Khan this month, Pakistan saw rare and violent protests against the military establishment, which Khan’s supporters accuse of being responsible for his ouster from power last year and his imprisonment. In Lahore, the residence of an army commander was set on fire. In Rawalpindi, the army headquarters was attacked. The Pakistani government now says it will try civilian protesters under the country’s government the dreaded army laws.
This political crisis could not have come at a worse time for Pakistan. Even before Khan’s arrest, inflation soared in Pakistan; foreign reserves were dwindling; food and other basic products were scarce; and a debt default was approaching. A funding program stopped of the International Monetary Fund is due to expire in June, although the government has been fighting to resume it for months. For Khan’s own rating“[Pakistan is] now in a worse situation than Sri Lanka.”
Some strategic analysts in New Delhi might be tempted to see all this as a favorable landscape for India. Pakistan’s domestic chaos means it is less able to play an influential role in Afghanistan, where New Delhi is based. quietly cultivating ties with the Taliban.
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It also makes Pakistan a less useful partner for China, which is currently trying expand your footprint westward to the Middle East. And the lack of a credible power center in Pakistan also means that its Muslim allies would be less able or willing to confront India over the Kashmir dispute. This week only Turkey and Saudi Arabia joined China in protesting India’s decision to host a meeting of the G-20 Tourism Working Group in Kashmir. These efforts would have much more teeth if Pakistan had a stable government in power.
However, the instability also carries several risks for New Delhi in general. Khan’s situation has decimated the legitimacy and credibility of not only the fragile ruling coalition but also Pakistan’s powerful military. In a Gallup poll that came out just a few weeks ago, Khan was crowned Pakistan’s most popular leader with an approval rating of 61 percent, well ahead of the country’s current rulers. It is quite possible that Khan’s popularity has only been strengthened by his arrest, subsequent release and the crackdown on power in his party. The fact that Pakistanis in every city were ready to storm the streets and attack military installations — in a country where the military has held the keys to power for decades — is an ominous and unprecedented sign of Khan’s popularity. The stage is now set for a prolonged confrontation.
For India, this instability often breeds volatility at the border. In the distraction caused by the chaos, militants targeting India may see a potential opportunity for a cross-border attack. In 2008, months after a chaotic movement kicked out former president Pervez Musharraf, militants launched one of the the deadliest terrorist attacks on Indian soil in Bombay. In the current crisis, the military’s ability to control these actors is severely compromised, thus leaving India’s border security much more precarious.
For its part, faced with an unprecedented crisis of credibility, the Pakistani army may itself try to reassert authority by provoking hostilities with India along the border. For decades, Pakistan’s military has sought to reassert control at home by portraying India as one existential threat that only the military can counter. With the current tensions between New Delhi and Islamabad, this opportunity is open.
announcement
The protracted power struggle in Islamabad also makes it more difficult for India to respond to these crises diplomatically, with no credible partner to deal with. For much of the history of India and Pakistan, cross-border relations have demonstrated much more stable under more powerful Pakistani leaders, often even those with ties to the military. But the ongoing crackdown on Khan’s party and anti-army protests leave Pakistan somewhat bereft for the foreseeable future, even as elections approach later this year.
The longer Pakistan’s political crisis drags on, the more vigilant India should be on its border.
