National Party leader Christopher Luxon. (File photo)
Photo: RNZ / Samuel Rillstone
National and ACT could form a government according to the latest 1News-Kantar political poll, with Christopher Luxon’s personal popularity recovering slightly.
National gained three points in the poll since March. With Labor losing one percentage point and the Greens losing the four points they gained in the previous poll, they would not govern even with the support of the Māori party.
The results would mean 47 seats for National and 15 for ACT, giving them one more than the 61-seat threshold needed to hold half of Parliament.
Labor would have 46 seats, the Greens would get nine and Te Pāti Māori would have three, assuming they win at least one electorate.
Labor leader Chris Hipkins, Acting Prime Minister. (File photo)
Photo: RNZ / Angus Dreaver
Labor leader Chris Hipkins lost two points of support as preferred prime minister since the March poll, but on 25 per cent he was still ahead of National’s Chris Luxon on 18, despite an increase of one point of the latter.
It marks a halt in the slide in popularity for Luxon, which took a five-point hit in the prime minister’s favorite shares between February and March.
This last survey was conducted from 20 to 24 May, after the publication of the government budget:
National: 37 per cent, up 3 Labor: 35 per cent, down 1 ACT: 11 per cent, flat Green Party: 7 per cent, up 4 per cent NZ First: 3 per cent, flat Te Pāti Māori: 2 per cent, Bottom 1 percent: 1 percent, steady NZ Democracy: 1 percent, steady New Conservative: 1 percent, steady Aotearoa Legalize Cannabis Party: 1 percent, 1 Undecided: 12 percent, down 1
Preferred PM:
Chris Hipkins: 25 percent, down 2 Christopher Luxon: 18 percent, 1 David Seymour: 7 percent, 1 Winston Peters: 2 percent, down 1 Chloe Swarbrick: 2 percent, 1 Nicola Willis: 1 percent, steady Jacinda Ardern: 1 per cent, 1 per cent Rawiri Waititi: 1 per cent, steady
The poll polled 1,002 eligible voters, weighted by demographics, with a margin of error of 3.1 percent at the 95 percent confidence interval.
The previous Kantar poll, in March, showed Labor and National trending slightly lower, with the Greens up four points to 11 per cent, the ACT up one point – also to 11 – and Te Pāti Māori two points to 3 per cent.
This would have given Labor and the Greens 60 seats, they could only form a government with the support of Te Pāti Māori, while National and ACT with 57 seats would fall short of a 61 seat majority.
