ANALYSIS OF THE POUND STERLING AND CONVERSION POINTS
The change in employment in the United Kingdom and the estimates of unemployment broke. US CPI in focus. 0.5% rise gains momentum for BoE. Initial reaction = GBP/USD up 0.35%.
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The British pound rallied on stellar employment data (see economic calendar below. All metrics showed improvement, not a good sign for Bank of England (BoE) doves. Concerns due to the BoE’s Mann’s sticky core inflation and Haskel’s aggressive monetary policy comments yesterday It will surely increase with today’s data and the fact that several BoE speakers are scheduled for today (Greene, Governor Bailey and Dhingra ) could increase the hawkish bias.
ECONOMIC CALENDAR
Source: DailyFX Economic Calendar
The average earnings metric is of particular concern, as it hit new annual highs (6.5%) and should help lift inflationary pressures. Money markets now expect approx 105 bps of rate hikes in December 2023 (see table below) with an 82% probability of a 25 bps (down from 93% a few days ago) increase for the June meeting. If the UK’s impending economic data is released in the same way, projections may shift further in favor of a 50 bps walk
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While the pound is on offer this morning, the market may not approach the data as forcefully as usual due to market jitters around the upcoming US CPI report which could shape the short-term directional bias of the cable.
BANK OF ENGLAND INTEREST RATE PROBABILITY
Source: Refinitiv
TECHNICAL ANALYSIS
GBP/USD DAILY CHART
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The price action on the daily cable chart is firmly above the 1.2500 psychological handling after breaking the symmetrical triangle chart pattern (black). A full bullish breakout could be spurred by the decline in US inflation later today, thus exposing further resistance areas.
Key resistance levels:
Key levels of support:
1.2545 (blue area) 1.250050 days MA (yellow) 1.2400
MIXED FEELING FROM THE IG CUSTOMER
IG Customer Sentiment (IGCS) data shows that retail traders are currently net SHORT in GBP/USD with 54% of traders holding short positions (as of this writing). At DailyFX we normally take a contrary view to crowd sentiment, but due to recent changes in long and short positioning we come to a cautious short-term disposition.
Contact and follow Warren on Twitter:@WVenketas
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