The Biden administration has been quietly negotiating with Iran to limit Tehran’s nuclear program and release imprisoned Americans, according to officials in three countries, as part of a larger U.S. effort to ease tensions and reduce the risk of a military confrontation with the Islamic Republic.
The U.S.’s goal is to reach an informal, unwritten agreement, which some Iranian officials call a “political ceasefire.” It would aim to prevent a further escalation of a long-hostile relationship that has grown even more strained as Iran amasses a stockpile of near-bomb-grade highly enriched uranium, supplies Russia drones for use in Ukraine and brutally represses domestic political protests.
The broad outlines of the talks were confirmed by three senior Israeli officials, an Iranian official and a US official. US officials would not discuss efforts to secure the release of the prisoners in detail, beyond calling it an urgent US priority.
The indirect talks, some of which took place this spring in the Gulf Arab state of Oman, reflect a resumption of diplomacy between the United States and Iran after the more than year-long collapse of negotiations to restore the 2015 nuclear deal. That deal sharply limited Iran’s activities in exchange for sanctions relief.
Iran accelerated its nuclear program months after President Donald J. Trump withdrew from the deal and imposed a series of new sanctions in the country in 2018.
Iran would agree under a new pact – which two Israeli officials described as “imminent” – not to enrich uranium beyond its current production level of 60 percent purity. This is near but below the 90% purity needed to make a nuclear weapon, a level the United States has warned would require a severe response.
Iran would also halt deadly attacks on US contractors in Syria and Iraq by its proxies in the region, expand cooperation with international nuclear inspectors and refrain from selling ballistic missiles to Russia, they said Iranian officials.
In return, Iran would hope that the United States would avoid tightening the sanctions that are already choking its economy; not confiscate foreign oil vessels, as it did last April; and not to seek new punitive resolutions at the United Nations or the International Atomic Energy Agency against Iran for its nuclear activity.
“None of this is aimed at reaching a breakthrough agreement,” said Ali Vaez, Iran director of the International Crisis Group, a conflict prevention organization. Instead, he said, the goal is to “cover up any activity that basically crosses a red line or puts either side in a position to retaliate in a way that destabilizes the status quo.”
“The goal is to stabilize tensions, create time and space to discuss future diplomacy and the nuclear deal,” Vaez said.
Iran also expects the U.S. to freeze billions of dollars in Iranian assets, the use of which would be limited to humanitarian purposes, in exchange for the release of three Iranian-American prisoners the U.S. says are wrongfully detained . US officials have not confirmed this link between the prisoners and the money, or any connection between the prisoners and nuclear matters.
In what could be a sign of a developing deal, the United States issued a waiver last week allowing Iraq to pay $2.76 billion in energy debts to Iran. According to the State Department, the money would be restricted to use by U.S.-approved third-party vendors for food and medicine for Iranian citizens.
That could ease concerns that the Biden administration is putting billions into the hands of a ruthless authoritarian regime that is killing protesters, supporting Russia’s war effort in Ukraine and funding anti-Israel proxies like Hamas and Hezbollah. Republicans slammed the Obama administration for releasing billions in frozen Iranian cash, which they said allowed it to subsidize terrorist activities.
Iranian officials are also trying to reclaim about $7 billion in oil purchase payments made to South Korea that they have linked to the release of American prisoners. That money would also be restricted for humanitarian use and held in a bank in Qatar, according to an Iranian official and several other people familiar with the negotiations.
The renewed U.S. focus on Iran’s nuclear program comes amid growing concerns from the Biden administration that Tehran could precipitate a crisis by further ramping up its uranium enrichment.
“The US seems to be making it clear to Iran that if you go to 90 percent, you’re going to pay one hell of a price,” said Dennis Ross, who has helped craft Middle East policy for several US presidents. Mr. Ross spoke from Israel, where he had met with security officials familiar with the recent talks.
At the same time, Mr. Ross said, the Biden administration has no appetite for another crisis. “They want the priority and focus to remain on Ukraine and Russia,” he said. “Having a war in the Middle East, where you know how it starts but you don’t know how it ends, that’s the last thing they want.”
At a news conference Wednesday, State Department spokesman Matt Miller said “rumors of a nuclear deal, tentative or otherwise, are false or misleading.”
“Our No. 1 policy is to ensure that Iran never gets a nuclear weapon, so of course we’ve been watching Iran’s nuclear enrichment activities,” Miller added. “We believe that diplomacy is the best way to help achieve this, but we are preparing for all possible options and contingencies.”
US denial of a pending “nuclear deal” could hinge on semantics, however, if the outcome amounts to the informal understanding described by several officials. Such an understanding would also avoid the need for the approval of a US Congress deeply hostile to Iran.
In an unexpected rhetorical shift, Iran’s Supreme Leader Ayatollah Ali Khamenei said Wednesday he could endorse a deal with the West if Iran’s nuclear infrastructure remains intact, according to state media reports. Khamenei also said Iran should maintain at least some cooperation with international nuclear inspectors.
Israel has warned that Iran could suffer dire consequences from producing bomb-grade uranium. “If Iran gets enriched to the level of 90 percent armed, it would be a big mistake and the price would be high,” said Israeli Defense Minister Yoav Gallant. said in May.
Even if Iran were to use its high-speed centrifuges to purify uranium to a level suitable for making a nuclear weapon, it would still take time to build such a bomb. In March, the chairman of the US Joint Chiefs of Staff, General Mark A. Milley, he told a House subcommittee this process could take “several months”.
“The United States military has developed multiple options for our national leadership to consider, if or when Iran decides to develop a nuclear weapon,” General Milley added.
A senior Israeli defense official said Israel estimates it would take Iran much longer — at least a year and perhaps more than two — to build a bomb, and said Mr. Milley reflect an American effort to convey the urgency of reaching a new agreement. with Tehran as soon as possible.
Iran has long insisted that its nuclear program is for peaceful purposes despite evidence that it has researched nuclear military capabilities.
The Biden administration’s diplomatic outreach to Iran resumed late last year with the U.S. special envoy for Iran, Robert Malley, holding two meetings with the ambassador of Iran to the United Nations, Amir Saeid Iravani, according to people familiar with the meetings. In early May, White House Middle East coordinator Brett McGurk traveled to Oman for Omani-mediated indirect talks with an Iranian delegation that included Tehran’s chief nuclear negotiator, Ali Bagheri Kani. Iran’s Foreign Ministry confirmed on Monday.
During negotiations to restore the 2015 deal, Iran refused to meet directly with US officials.
In a statement to the New York Times, Iran’s mission to the United Nations declined to address the details of the talks, but said “it is important to create a new atmosphere and move forward from the current situation.”
The renewed talks have worried some Israeli officials, who worry that implementing new deals could ease Western economic pressure on Iran and even lead to a broader nuclear deal that Israel fears could put a lifeline on the Tehran’s economy without sufficiently derailing its nuclear activities.
Mr. Ross said a modest deal to avoid a crisis could be useful, but only if it had limited time. Iran has been building new underground facilities, he noted, that could likely withstand the bunker-busting American bombs that currently threaten its existing nuclear sites.
“The more they toughen up, the more the military options lose their potency,” Ross said. “Buying time from this point of view works for the Iranians.”
