On this 247th anniversary of our nation’s independence, America is a deeply divided place marked by deep, deep depression.
A large number of our compatriots live more and more in echo chambers that are self-ratifying and justifying to opposing political poles. There is a lack of overlap and common ground. Ditto for mutual respect and good faith.
Economist Herbert Stein said, “If something can’t go on forever, it will stop.”
It is through this lens that I evaluate the upcoming presidential race. As it now stacks up, this contest is both a symptom and a cause of our national despondency.
Whether you prefer Charles Bronson in the original film or Bruce Willis in the remake, “Death Wish” seems to be a suitable narrative for the approach of both parties.
On the one hand, despite the apparent abundance of viable candidates of varying degrees of talent and political flair, Republicans seem determined to rally again, cult-like, behind a proven loser of declining appeal and ‘escalation of responsibilities.
Donald Trump threaded the thinnest of needles in 2016 to beat a particularly unattractive Democratic candidate with her own boatload of baggage. Since then, it has been one electoral defeat after another. This includes the GOP’s off-year elimination in 2018; the loss of Trump’s own re-election in 2020; and, the party’s stunning underperformance, even amid favorable political conditions last November.
If Trump were to return to reality TV, it wouldn’t be as the host of The Apprentice, but as the namesake of The Biggest Loser.
The story of Trump’s victory in 2016 hinged on voters claiming to hate both him and Hillary Clinton. This subset of voters held their noses, rolled the dice, and went with Trump by a decisive 70-30 margin.
Now fast forward to the current time. Polls of those who say they dislike Trump and President Joe Biden very much show that those voters favor Biden in surprising numbers. One such poll had Biden up 55 percent to 19 percent among voters who had little use for either presumptive candidate.
The last time Trump appeared at the polls, he lost by seven million votes and an electoral college count virtually identical to what had given him the presidency four years earlier. Since then, the country has experienced its electoral denialism; a riot aimed at preventing Congress from counting the electoral college votes and prison sentences for many who had done their bidding by storming the Capitol; a second complaint; two separate criminal indictments (with more perhaps on the way); a $5 million judgment against him in a civil suit for rape and defamation; and some of his former appointees now attest to his fundamental unfitness.
And we’re still only halfway through 2023. Please explain to me how any of this, let alone all of it, makes Trump an improved or more formidable candidate than he was last time.
His supporters adore him with unwavering intensity. But their numbers are dwindling, slowly, steadily.
For Republicans to hand over their nomination to Trump for a third consecutive term is to accept the enormous likelihood of another loss, quite possibly a final and conclusive defeat.
On the other hand, and acknowledging the morbidness of the point, for the Democrats to re-nominate Joe Biden, now 80 years old and two weeks from his 82nd birthday on Election Day, is recklessly flirting with the mortality tables, so like risk of cognitive decline.
Note that Biden was as old when he took office as Ronald Reagan was when he left after an eight-year term.
Some might suggest that 80 is the new 70 and other blather. However, math is still math and age is still what it is. Last I looked, life expectancy in the US wasn’t exactly on the decline.
About 70 percent of Americans, plus or minus a couple of points according to the poll, do not want Biden to seek another term. That number includes a decided majority of his own party.
However, the White House is something that only a few willingly walk away from. The last to do so was Lyndon Johnson and that had less to do with his will and more to do with the upset over Vietnam and his approval of his work.
The fact of this political era is that all actors exist primarily in juxtaposition to Trump. Consider the large number of Republicans currently running for president. Pretty much the only attention they get is how they compare to Trump and what they have to say about their latest outrage or misfortune.
Biden is also a creature of the Trump show. Although he passed his due date, in 2020 he was named as the Trump hunter who could win back blue-collar, Rust Belt voters. He fulfilled this position, possibly his lifetime contribution.
His argument for re-election is not much more than that. Despite the many concerns about his age and ability, Democratic powerhouses, along with more than a few voters, see Biden as the insurance policy that keeps Trump out of the Oval Office. Who else do they have with this proven ability? Kamala Harris, Pete Buttigieg, JB Pritzker, Gavin Newsom, Jared Polis? Anyone bet the house on any of them?
Eric Sondermann is an independent political commentator from Colorado. He writes regularly for Colorado Politics and The Gazette. It comes to him a[email protected]; follow him to @EricSondermann
