If it’s FRIDAY… President Biden travels to Hartford, Conn., to mark the one-year anniversary of the bipartisan gun control legislation he signed… Biden allies question Democrats’ silence on the recent indictment of Donald Trump…Francis Suarez touts record in speech after launching presidential bid…Ron DeSantis heads to Nevada to headline Saturday’s annual Basque Fry fundraiser…And” Meet the press now” interviews Asa Hutchinson.
But FIRST… Two key forces are driving America’s growing political divide, according to historical data from our NBC News (formerly NBC News/Wall Street Journal) poll.
One force is the changing demographics of the Republican Party over the past 10 years, where whites without college degrees now make up a clear majority of the current GOP.
In 2012, our survey found that 48 percent of self-described Republicans were white without a college degree, and another 40 percent were white with a college degree.
Ten years later, however, non-college whites now make up 62% of all Republicans, while the share of whites with college degrees has dropped to 25%.
This transformation has produced changes in the values and policy preferences of the GOP.
Take the issue of free trade. In 2015, before Trump became president, an almost equal share of Democrats (56%) and Republicans (48%) said free trade with foreign countries was good for the United States. However, by 2019, the gap here between Democrats (73%) and Republicans (52%) had grown to 21 points.
There is also gun control. In 1995, 48% of Republicans agreed with a statement expressing frustration that the government would not do enough to regulate access to firearms.
now? The share of Republicans who agree with this statement is 22%.
The second big change in our poll over the past 10 years has been a Democratic Party that has become much more liberal.
In the 2012 NBC News merged poll, 43% of Democrats described themselves as liberal, and 19% called themselves “very liberal.”
Ten years later, 55% of Democrats said they were liberal, with 29% “very liberal.”
This has also produced changes in values and political preferences
In the 2013 poll, only 10% of Democrats said they followed no religion. Ten years later, this has grown to 38%.
Meanwhile, on policy, 45 percent of Democrats said the government should do more to solve the problems, according to a December 1995 NBC/WSJ poll, compared with 17 percent of Republicans who said the same
However, by April 2021, Republicans had remained roughly the same on this issue (23% wanted the government to do more), while the Democratic percentage had grown to 82%.
For more information on these changes, see the Meet the Press Blog.
And even more, look this presentation of the pollsters who conduct the NBC News poll. It’s a fascinating read.
Chart of the Day: The Democrats’ Turn
Data Download: The number of the day is… 89%
That’s the share of Democrats who support abortion rights, agreeing that it should be legal all or most of the time, according to an April 2023 NBC News poll.
That’s up from 68% of Democrats who said the same in a September 2008 poll, an increase of 21 percentage points.
Across the aisle, support for abortion among Republicans has remained relatively flat, with 25% of Republicans in 2008 believing abortion should be legal most or all of the time and 28% of Republicans saying the same in 2023.
Among independents, support for abortion has also been fairly flat over the past 15 years, although independents are still more supportive of abortion access than Republicans. In 2008, 55% of independents agreed that abortion should be legal all or most of the time, while 57% of independents said the same in April of this year .
For more on what our look back at polling data means for today’s political climate, check out the Meet the Press Blog.
Other numbers to know:
3: The number of people who died Thursday when a tornado hit Texas.
6: The number of Defense Department leak suspect Jack Teixeira was indicted Thursday.
63%: The share of Americans who favor allowing the abortion pill mifepristone to be available by prescription, by new Gallup poll.
6: The number of weeks a GOP walkout has gridlocked the Oregon state Senate, before enough GOP lawmakers returned Thursday to give the legislature a quorum, by the Associated Press.
2: The number of bills lawmakers introduced to freeze funds to build and renovate Space Command’s current Colorado headquarters as the Biden administration decides whether to keep the headquarters there or move them to Alabama (as promise the former Trump administration).
14: The number of years a Michigan man was sentenced to for his support of the Islamic State, which included traveling to Yemen and fighting for ISIS.
1.5 degrees Celsius: This is the amount of global temperatures exceeded pre-industrial levels at the beginning of June.
Looking ahead to 2024: Florida men divided over abortion
Abortion remains one of the dividing lines in the Republican presidential primary, with Florida Gov. Ron DeSantis taking aim at former President Donald Trump for his stance on his state’s six-week ban.
“We were able to pass the heartbeat bill, which was a great, great thing. And while I appreciate what the former president has done in a number of areas, he opposes this bill. He said that it was ‘tough’ to protect an unborn child when there is a detectable heartbeat,” DeSantis. he told the Christian Broadcasting Network.
“I think it’s human to do that,” DeSantis added. “I think that’s what pro-lifers have wanted to see good pro-life protections, whether it’s Florida or Iowa under Kim Reynolds. It’s really important that you can do those things.”
But Trump isn’t the only Florida GOP candidate to criticize the state’s ban.
Miami Mayor Francis Suarez, who just launched his presidential run this week, he told the Associated Press which would support a federal ban on abortion after the first 15 weeks of pregnancy, with exceptions. But as for a six-week ban, Suarez said, “the country is not there yet.”
Democrats, meanwhile, are focusing on the issue ahead of next year’s election. Vice President Kamala Harris will deliver a speech at the North Carolina battleground next weekend to mark the anniversary of the Supreme Court’s decision that overturned Roe v. Wade, according to NBC News’ Peter Alexander, Kelly O’Donnell, Monica Alba and Rebecca Shabad.
In other campaign news…
DeSantis’ bet on Nevada: DeSantis heads to Nevada this weekend — his first trip to the early primary state as a presidential candidate. And the Trump team bristled when asked whether DeSantis was targeting a state where local Republicans have supported the former president, NBC News’ Natasha Korecki and Henry J. Gomez report.
To compromise or not to compromise? At least two candidates in the Republican presidential primary: former Govs. Asa Hutchinson and Chris Christie have said they will sign a pledge to support the eventual Republican nominee, a pledge required by the RNC to earn a spot on the debate stage. But the two former governors have indicated that they may not keep the promise.
Election battle: Biden is it is not likely to be on the primary ballot in Iowa and New Hampshire if those states defy the Democratic National Committee and hold their primaries before South Carolina, according to Axios.
Direct communications: Biden’s re-election campaign named Michael Tyler, a campaign veteran of the DNC and New Jersey Sen. Cory Booker, as communications director.
The Trump Trial: A second defamation trial against Trump involving writer E. Jean Carroll, who says Trump raped her in the 1990s (which Trump has denied), has been set for January 15. Trump was found guilty of sexual assault in a previous trial, but Carroll’s. The lawyers amended their defamation suit after Trump made comments about Carroll during a CNN town hall.
Do it, don’t: Republican Florida Gov. Ron DeSantis has pushed back on criticism from California Democratic Gov. Gavin Newsom in recent weeks, telling the Democrat to “stop moving,” questioning whether he wants to “throw his hat in the ring and challenge to Joe.” [Biden].”
Main positioning: Ohio’s GOP Senate primary “is becoming a real-time illustration of the different ways ambitious Republicans are navigating Donald Trump’s latest legal woes,” NBC’s Henry J. Gomez writes News.
EMILY’s List weighs in: Roll Call reports that EMILY’s List, which supports women candidates who support abortion rights, has endorsing Democratic organizer Joanna Weiss in his bid to replace Democratic Rep. Katie Porter, who is running for the Senate.
Going back: Two Democratic Tennessee state representatives who were kicked out of the legislature after protesting gun violence on the floor — Justin Jones and Justin J. Pearson — are now one step closer to returning to the chamber. Both won their primary races for their previous seats on Thursday, according to NBC News’ Adam Edelman.
ICYMI: What ELSE is going on in the world:
The Supreme Court on Thursday rejected a challenge to the Indian Child Welfare Act, upholding parts of a law meant to keep Native American children within tribes.
African leaders arrived in Ukraine on Friday meet with Ukrainian leaders and seek a solution to the conflict.
