Move Forward party leader and prime ministerial candidate Pita Limjaroenrat addresses supporters ahead of the July 13 parliamentary vote to choose Thailand’s next prime minister, outside Central World in Bangkok on July 9 of 2023.
Tananchai Keawsowattana / Thai N | Afp | Getty Images
Thailand’s parliament will vote for a new prime minister on Thursday, and the country’s young and urban people are about to find out whether their support for a progressive opposition party in May’s election will translate into genuine power.
Not long ago, they were basking in the euphoria of the party’s surprising victory, preparing for change and democratic reform. Two months later, they face the prospect of 79-year-old Wan Muhamad Noor Matha, widely considered a member of the old guard, as the “new” Speaker of Thailand’s House of Representatives.
Young voters had propelled the Advance Party — led by 42-year-old Harvard-educated Pita Limjaroenrat — to an unprecedented majority of seats in Parliament after nine years of military rule, but that was too little for the party. promote its own candidates, forcing it into a coalition with seven other parties.
Move Forward had campaigned on an ambitious agenda of structural reform targeting the country’s monarchy, monopolies and military. These goals essentially extended the goals of the more than two-year-old student protests that were sparked by the dissolution of a political party — the predecessor entity of Move Forward — that was highly critical of outgoing Prime Minister Prayut Chan -o-cha, the former military general who seized power in a coup in 2014 and made changes to the Thai Constitution in 2017.
His slim majority has made his agenda vulnerable to the machinations of the institutions he aims to reform, along with the intertwined patronage networks that remain despite the ousting of several influential business families in this election. The installation of Wan Noor as a compromise candidate after runner-up Pheu Thai had opposed Move Forward’s election was just the beginning.
“The election of Mr Wan Muhamad Noor Matha as speaker of the house indicates that the Pheu Thai Party has significant influence over the Advance Party,” said Syetarn Hansakul, senior analyst at the Economist Intelligence Unit.
“It puts the Pheu Thai party in an advantageous position if Mr Pita fails to get enough senatorial votes to back him as prime minister.”
Barriers to power
In fact, it’s not even clear whether Limjaroenrat will get to lead the new Thai government when the bicameral National Assembly meets to begin what could be the first of many prime ministerial votes on Thursday.
Limjaroenrat needs 376 votes to become prime minister. He has 312 of his eight-party coalition in the 500-seat lower house, so that means he would still need the support of around 64 more votes from the 250-member Senate, a body appointed by the royalist army after the coup of 2014.
Pictured in this May 18 photo are (from left) Sudarat Keyuraphan, leader of the Thai Sang Thai Party; Pita Limjaroenrat, candidate for prime minister and leader of the Avança Party; and Cholnan Srikaew, leader of the Pheu Thai Party.
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This is by no means a guarantee, as one of Move Forward’s stated goals is to amend Thailand’s lese majeste law, which criminalizes criticism of King Maha Vajiralongkorn and other members of the royal family.
“It’s not our job to listen to people,” It has been reported that Thai Senator Prapanth Koonmee said in June. “Even if you had 100 million votes, I still wouldn’t pick you if I didn’t like you or find you suitable.”
In fact, Nomura assigned a 60% probability that Pheu Thai, rather than Move Forward, will lead the coalition government following Wan Noor’s endorsement as speaker of the house last week.
“It is also not a preferred choice by the Thai establishment,” said EIU’s Hansakul. “However, between the two, Pheu Thai represents less of a threat to the status quo for the Thai establishment,” as it does not proclaim an agenda to reform the monarchy and the military in Thailand, he said.
Limjaroenrat could also be disbarred due to an allegation against his involvement in a media company, which is illegal under Thai law.
Still, a government led by Limjaroenrat’s Move Forward may spell trouble for monopolies in the alcohol and energy sectors as the party seeks to level the playing field, according to EIU’s Hansakul. The business sector has also resisted a plan to significantly raise the minimum wage.
Even if Limjaroenrat succeeds in attaining the role of prime minister, a Move Forward-led government will face significant obstacles because the Senate retains substantial veto power and Pheu Thai holds a significant share of the coalition seats.
“As a result, Move Forward may not be able to secure its preferred ministerial portfolios, as evidenced by its failure to appoint the Speaker of the House,” said Napon Jatusripitak, visiting researcher at the ISEAS Yusof Ishak Institute in singapore
Generational replacement
Limjaroenrat has not yet given up. At a rally in central Bangkok on Sunday, he addressed hundreds of supporters and reminded senators “We are all politicians of the people.”
There may be further protests if Limjaroenrat and Move Forward are prevented from leading the new government.
Move Forward’s surprise victory in May was heralded as “a profound and earth-shattering result for Thai politics over the past two decades” as the Thai people championed change and reform, Thitinan Pongsudhirak, professor of politics and relations internationals at Chulalongkorn University, he told CNBC after the May election.
His victory was seen as a break with the populist appeal of Thaksin Shinawatra, the tycoon and former prime minister who went into exile in 2008 to avoid a prison sentence for abuse of power after a military coup that had overthrown his government two years. before.
He has continued to influence Thai politics from afar (Pheu Thai is the latest iteration of his party vehicle after several previous ones were dissolved by the courts), but the appearance of Move Forward in this election points to his waning influence among young people they don’t know. his biography.
In fact, the new speaker Wan Noor could be considered part of this old guard: he is a veteran of at least nine political parties, including Pheu Thai’s predecessor entity Thai Rak Thai, and a former speaker of the house in the late 1990s under three different prime ministers. . He was recently associated with the Prachachat party.
“This new generation wants structural change that Thaksin cannot deliver. He is always trying to reconcile with the old money, he is still courting the king for the right to return,” said Pavin Chachavalpongpun, associate professor of politics at the Center for the South East of Kyoto University. Asian studies.
“The issue of the monarchy is at the heart of the struggle in Thai politics today,” he added. About 250 of the 1,914 prosecutions linked to the 2020 protests were under the lese majeste law. according to the group Thai Lawyers for Human Rights — with many minors among these cases.
While objections from the royalist military establishment and the old guard may derail Move Forward’s ambitions, Limjaroenrat’s party can still count on the mandate of 14 million Thai voters.
“If pro-democracy social movements do not lose momentum, support for the party is likely to persist, even if the courts disqualify the party or its leader,” said Jatusripitak of ISEAS Yusof Ishak.
There’s also an argument that Move Forward might be more effective in opposition at the moment.
“In Thailand, political parties are ephemeral as they tend to lack lasting organizational roots at the local level and are prone to dissolution by the courts,” said Jatusripitak of ISEAS Yusof Ishak.
“From this point of view, the transformation of Move Forward into a movement-based political party after the pro-democracy movements in 2020-2021 is a strategic adaptation that should keep support for the party alive for now,” he added.
