Zoe’s forecast for Tuesday afternoon
High pressure has strengthened and centered over New Mexico today. This allows temperatures to rise a degree or two more than yesterday, with more widespread record highs forecast for this afternoon. Albuquerque may tie for the second-highest temperature of all time, with Las Vegas potentially experiencing triple-digit heat for the first time in recorded history.
Along with the heat, showers and thunderstorm activity appear in the Gila in the early afternoon. Isolated thunderstorms are expected in western New Mexico with showers in the northern mountains during the afternoon hours. Precipitation is most likely to reach the ground only at higher elevations, evaporating before reaching the surface in valley areas. This will create downwind gusts as the rain evaporates, allowing for erratic winds in localized areas this afternoon.
High pressure will begin to weaken and lengthen by mid to late week. This will allow monsoon moisture to be drawn from northern Mexico across the New Mexico-Arizona border. More scattered showers and thunderstorms are expected in the mountains each afternoon starting Wednesday and into next weekend. Mountain storms will push into the lower elevations, giving the Albuquerque metro a daily chance of showers and thunderstorms.
A backdoor is coming later this week in northeastern New Mexico. This will draw a lot of moisture into the Northeast starting Friday. Strong to severe thunderstorms are expected in northeastern New Mexico, with large hail and damaging wind gusts the primary concern. Fortunately, the front will cool temperatures significantly in the Northeast, but only a couple of degrees elsewhere.
